Tuesday, July 10, 2007

Sorry for missing your point, but your actual point is actually much worse I fear. What horrible things did the Palestinians do to the Jews before they started immigrating to Mandate Palestine against the will of the people of Palestine?

In 1900, there were 10,000 Jews in Mandate Palestine and hundreds of thousand Arab-Palestinians. By the time WWII rolled around, the place was 2/3 Arab and 1/3 Jewish. The UN partition was horrendously unfair by any objective analysis -- Jews owned 6% of land with 33% of population and got 50% in the partition with the most feritle land sections and southern port access to boot -- and 90%+ of them were not even living there just a few decades prior! The US engaged in coercive lobbying on UN countries to attain the vote for Israel. At this point, BOTH sides wanted the other out and engaged in terrorism and massacres to try to achieve this. Both sides were "horrible." You say the Palestinians "brought it upon themselves" but would you have meekly surrendered half your homeland -- with more likely to be surrendered later -- to western-backed immigrants after being promised sovereighty by the Brits during the war?



Definitely not, strategy forums are politics blind in my experience. I do see venemous hatred of the Palestinians coming from you, Felix, Bluff, and to a slightly lesser extent M -- who would in fact give water to a thristy Palestinian! -- but venemous hatred from myself? I only express frusteration at those who have views that in my opinion have prevented the United States from stepping up and pressing hard on both sides for a 2-state agreement, reconciliation, and peace.

Monday, July 9, 2007

Alternate point of view

Israel has actively promoted a split in Palestinian leadership for years. The Israelis funded and promoted Hamas secreted in its early years as competition for the PLO. In the moments when they want a unified gov't in Ramallah this hurts them.

Gaza will now be what was somewhat designed to be: a very large prison. I feel sorry for the significant numbers of normal, Palenstians who want peace and will be stuck there under worsing conditions as the Israelis limit all non-essentials going to Gaza to pressure Hamas, and limited their ability to hurt the border towns. They control by treaty the water rights, sea rights, air space, and borders.

I am not hopeful, but perhaps Israel would be willing to do aggressive land swaps for the territory they want to keep with the large settlements, and you could get a vaguely viable state. But you will still have the Jerusalem issue, which Israel will never give on now, and the refugees. Who will need to get some type of permanent status if they will not be able to return to a Palenstian state. But Israel did not give up Gaza out of kindness, they gave it up because of the demographic time bomb it represented. Israel's nightmare is that the Palenstians give up on a state and say fine, we can't have a viable state anymore, just give us the vote, we'll be part of Israel. But Israel has a nightmare now with Gaza, and I think they will have to do more military ops there over time.

Latest Reports

At the end of the recent battles between Hamas and Fatah I started to think that this falling out might actually have been the best thing that could happen in regards to advancing a settlement between the Israelis and Palestinians but didn't want to voice a mere speculation. However it seems that it may actually be the case. Having stared into the abyss, seen what may actually happen to them if things don't start to get fixed and fixed soon there is now an overture of sorts from the new Palestinian Prime Minister Salam Fayyad:

Article from CNN.com.

RAMALLAH, West Bank (CNN) -- The new Palestinian government is seeking "intensive and active cooperation" with Israel to ensure that the chaos that recently gripped Gaza does not re-emerge in the West Bank, Palestinian Prime Minister Salam Fayyad told CNN on Thursday..........Fayyad said security is a top priority, and he cautioned Palestinians not to use armed resistance as the only way to fight for an independent state.

"It's about time that we know what works and what doesn't work," he said. "And it's not enough to stop at statements and pronouncements like, 'Resistance is [the] right of any occupied people.......Simple, basic question: Are we better off now than we were then? Then, the situation was not great, but guess what it is like today? It's catastrophic.....This is complete chaos," he said. "Anyone resisting, however which way they want, whenever they want, from wherever they want, is that resistance? That has destroyed our national project completely."

Fayyad hopes to get the process toward "an independent Palestinian state living side by side with the state of Israel" back on track through peaceful means.

Here's hoping that at least the Palestinians on the West Bank will adopt a more conciliatory/pragmatic and realistic approach towards a peace agreement and that some deal can finally be reached at least as regards that area. Gaza would be a seperate issue. How to deal with them is beyond me and I've a feeling pretty much beyond everybody else.
My main disappointment is Fatah didn't put up a better fight.

When I saw the Palestinians were murdering each other, I grabbed a bag of popcorn cheering both sides to kill each other. My feeling was analogous to a football "over" bet where you win the bet when the score exceeds a certain number determined by the bookie. I was happy that Hamas was "scoring" but Fatah was a huge disappointment. Those Fatah guys act brave when they are killing unarmed Israelis but when the other side has guns...they run away like a bunch of women.

Oh well, it is not every day you can see two groups of terrorist scumbags killing each other. I guess that is some solace.... Fatah still dominates the West Bank so maybe they will send in reinforcements and the killing can go on at more extreme levels. Come of Fatah, paradise awaits!!! Go Team Go!!! Go team Go!!!

Gimme a K! Kayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy!!
Gimme an I! Eyeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!
Gimme a L! Ellllllllllllllllllllll!!
Gimme anoher L! Ellllllllllllllll!!!!
What does that spell? Killlllllllll !!
Go Fatah Go!!! lets get some points on the board...
Yes, I think Fatah is strong enough in the West Bank, but it would be disasterous if Hamas and Fatah repeat the violence there. Hamas are more powerful in Gaza than Fatah is strong in the West Bank regarding the support of the respective populations. The West Bank is much bigger and more spread out compared to the small and densely populated Gaza and Hamas could possibly neutralise the strenght difference. They also did well in the elections in a number of West Bank cities, demonstrating that despite the lack of a sizable military force in the West Bank, they do have some public support there. But I think that they will do everything in their powers to prevent this scenario. Hopefully Gaza is a show of strength and will be enough for Hamas, at least for now.

There have already been reports that Fatah leaders are asking Israel for help in facilitating their exit from Gaza. I dont know what the response has been.

It seems that (depending on how quickly the violence in Gaza is reduced) that there is a high probability that the Fatah leadership will largely leave Gaza. I suppose they may be able to come to some sort of agreement for the sake of "unity", however as this is a myth, im not sure that they will be capable of this. Could happen though but it would be only a token gesture. Hamas and Fatah know who controls Gaza.

Fatah wont leave the West Bank unless they are forced out. Hamas dont have much military power there and thats whats important in the short term.

Its been reported that both sides have executed prisoners. Fatah have already begun taking actions in the West Bank - at least 36 Hamas people have been taken into custody in the last few hours.
There are many sensible reasons as to why the Israelis did not allow the Palestinians a state - including the fact that the Palestinians rejected a 2 state solution themselves!

I am not interested in a colonialism arguament here. I would only add that I have given reasons why it is ridiculous to believe that Israel was "colonialist" and that if it indeed is/was colonialist, it has done a laughably terrible job at it!

In any case, even if you think Israel is colonialist, Israel has now shown that it believes in a 2 state solution and has already evacuated Gaza. So the question is, now that Israel agrees to the principle of a 2 state solution, why are the Palestinians doing everything in their power to ensure that this is an impossibility? Surely if you support the Palestinians, you would agree that their best chance is to convince the Israelis that they will not kill them after a deal is done, get their state and then do whatever they want afterwards, whether that is peace or continued war?

No, they do not need to show Israel they are "worthy" of a state. But yes, they do need to show Israel that it will be peaceful, reject the policy of the destruction of Israel, and not remain a violently hostile enemy. That has to be a fundamental part of any agreement surely? If it is not, the region is destined to further war whatever Israel does and it would follow that it would be sensible for Israel to NOT give back the territories - if there will be continued war anyway, it is easier for Israel to defend itself if the Palestinians dont have a state of their own.

I feel that there is a serious failure of many people to accept the reality of the situation. Whatever the mistakes of the past and the opinions people have as to who is to blame, the situation today is what it is. If the Palestinians want a state of their own, only Israel can help them. For Israel to help them, they simply need to convince the people that they want help from, that they will not murder them when they have a state of their own and not pursue their commitment to the absolute destruction of Israel. Why is this so hard to understand? Why do people not understand the reluctance of Israelis to give their sworn enemy, who is attacking you and your civilians daily, a state 3 hours drive from Tel Aviv and next door to most of West Jerusalem!?
Israel should not become involved in any way. The problem is that if Hamas takes over Gaza, the 2 state solution is dead. There would be effectively 3 states, Israel, Gaza (Hamas) and the Fatah West Bank (where Hamas is less powerful).

Israel and the world generally believe that Fatah is a more pragmatic group and the only group to talk to (somewhere down the line) regarding the 2 state solution. If Hamas takes control of Gaza and Fatah flees, I dont see how their grip would be weakened in the near future. In fact, it has been reported today that Fatah is asking the Israeli authorities to help its people leave Gaza via the sea - a depressingly ironic situation.

Also reported is the execution of fatah prisoners by Hamas in front of their families. A Hamas dominated Gaza would quickly become a Taliban style Islamic area. "There will be no dialogue with Fatah, only the sword and the rifle," Nezar Rayyan, a top Hamas leader, told Hamas radio on Thursday.

"This is a battle between Muslims and non-believers, and God willing, we will lead the Friday prayer in the president's office, and transform the [Fatah-controlled] security complex into a big mosque."

I dont see how Jordan would be able to make any meaningful intervention regarding Gaza - the arms and fighters come and go via the border with Egypt.